The TV ecology has broken the ant lair, and the five predictions of the new ecology in the future

What's the lack of you in the hot download of the "Video and Audio Technology Special Issue" in November by the electronic enthusiast website!

Accompanied by the voice of the TV colleagues "Wolf is coming". At the end of the year, major video sites have started the annual video content promotion meeting, which is essentially a competitive round of advertising bidding. The fat in the eyes of advertisers-TV stations at all levels are no longer the only target of their money, and the "cake" of Chinese online video has also become a key target for advertisers. According to data from Analysys International, advertising revenue in China ’s online video market has increased year by year, with Q1, Q2, and Q3 advertising revenues of 2.43 billion yuan, 2.88 billion yuan, and 3.25 billion yuan respectively. 10 billion mark.

The TV industry is facing unprecedented changes under the Internet revolution. The swarming attention from the government to the industry and the capital field will lead this unprecedented network integration "movement" to where? With this year's booming smart TV wave, can the TV ecosystem regain a ray of vitality on the verge of becoming more and more? The TV system with Chinese characteristics and the traditional TV ecological chain are facing the collapse of ant caves. After 5 years, in 2018, TVs will basically be fully intelligent; after 10 years, TV manufacturers will basically withdraw from the market; set-top boxes and their evolved products will prosper for more than 10 years; TV stations are weakening, and Internet video live broadcasting will inevitably be released; Internet Video has become a new mainstream TV ecosystem: in about ten years, user consumption video will be mobile and socialized, and platform content will be king.

The first impact of new TV media came from video websites supported by capital. It has already harvested 389 million online video users and a market size of more than 10 billion. The main obstacles are policies and costs. Driven by users, terminal intelligence is making a breakthrough. In the face of the revolution initiated by Internet video, the TV ecosystem has begun to break down the ant lair, and the outline of the future ecosystem has already emerged.

1. Intelligent change of TV terminal: TV sets will basically be fully intelligent in 5 years

The data is the best explanation: As of September 2013, there were 530 million TV users in the country; the data in February 2013 showed that the total stock of connected TV users was 69 million, while the stock of smart TV OTT set-top boxes was about 10 million. .

Throughout 2013, the shipment of smart TVs will reach 22 million units, and the total stock of users will reach 91 million units by the end of 2013. Research institutions predict that smart TV shipments will account for more than 90% of flat-panel TVs in 2015, nearly 40 million units.

The monthly shipment of smart TV OTT set-top box chips is 1 million, and accordingly, the monthly shipment of smart TV set-top boxes is 1 million. With Huawei, LeTV, Baidu, Fast Broadcast, Ali, PPTV, iQiyi, Youku, Hisense, Haier, Tongzhou, Xiaomi II and dozens of other manufacturers continue to launch new products (internal data: Xiaomi box since March this year Since its listing, it has sold more than 1 million units in total), and the market is showing accelerated growth. By the end of 2013, the total stock of set-top boxes will reach 15 million units.

It is foreseeable that by the end of 2015, the total stock of domestic connected TV users will reach more than 170 million, OTT set-top boxes will reach more than 30 million, and the total number of Internet TV terminals will reach 200 million.

With the continuous development of this trend, 5 years later, in 2018, TV sets will basically be fully intelligent.

Second, the development trend of TV terminals: TV manufacturers basically withdraw from the market after 10 years

With the continuous popularization of smart phones and tablet computers, PCs and handheld terminals have greatly diversified the viewing time on TVs. With the technological and business advantages of online video based on Internet platforms and channels, anytime, anywhere, massive, free, multi-screen, social, mobile, personalized, etc., smart phones and PAD are becoming personal entertainment and information consumption centers. With the continuous maturity of multi-screen, multi-stream, UI, UE, social and mobile, TV sets will gradually become large-screen displays. Stock TV will be interconnected with mobile terminals through OTT set-top boxes and TV Dongle.

I personally expect that Internet TV technology, services, and user experience will develop rapidly, and will provide mature services to users within 5 years. By then, TV shipments will continue to decline, replaced by TV Dongle, set-top boxes, monitors and projectors. Like Nokia, domestic and foreign TV brands will either transform or die.

The annual domestic TV shipments of more than 40 million TV sets are basically among the top six domestic TV manufacturers and those from South Korea and Japan. This is an existing market capacity that will remain stable for 5 years. It will start to decline after 5 years, and then decline rapidly within 5 years. In other words, there is a stock market of 400 million TV sets in 10 years.

However, with the continuous entry of IT companies (Lenovo, Tongfang, etc.) and Internet companies (Xiaomi, LeTV, iQiyi, Ali, etc.), this stock market is also being rapidly eroded.

Internet companies have entered the TV terminal industry across borders, using free Internet-connected basic services and free basic users to expand users and increase video traffic on TVs. Decided that Internet companies will inevitably have no intention of making money on TV terminals, and can develop smart TVs and OTT set-top boxes with zero profits or even patch terminals. This method will give traditional TV manufacturers a fatal blow.

However, the current Internet video companies do not have sufficient financial strength and the user experience is still poor. At present, it is not enough to fully threaten traditional TV manufacturers. But five years later, with the entry of new capital, the improvement of user experience, Continuous expansion will occupy half of the smart TV stock market. In this process, traditional TV manufacturers will die, until TV manufacturers basically withdraw from the market after 10 years.

3. Set-top boxes and their evolved products will flourish for more than 10 years

At present, there are more than 50 set-top box manufacturers on the domestic market, with more than 200 products. As the operating system, UI, UE, and multi-screen interactive technologies of set-top boxes continue to mature, the multi-bit rate, intelligent recommendation, personalization, and socialization of Internet video have matured. Set-top boxes, TV Dongle and other evolved products will continue to prosper. Due to the low price and rapid update iteration of box products, a new generation will be generated within 2 years, and the TV update iteration will take 5-7 years.

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