January sales in air-conditioners hit the biggest drop in 28 months

"In terms of shipments of (domestic) terminals, this year's January was 45.7% lower than the same period last year." Aowei Consulting's director of white electricity Han Kun was surprised by the data. This is the largest drop in domestic air conditioner sales in a single month since August 2009.

According to Ovid Consulting's monitoring data, in January this year, domestic air conditioner sales volume was 1.545 million units, which was only about half of the same period of last year.

In fact, as early as the beginning of this year, household appliance analyst Liang Zhenpeng predicted in an interview with “Daily Economic News” reporter that white goods growth in the second half of 2011 has been very weak, coupled with real estate regulation, home appliance subsidy policy withdrawal and other factors The impact of the situation in 2012 will be more severe.

Han Yu said that in December last year, the home appliance subsidy policy gradually withdrew, and the "tail-on effect" that was brought about earlier released some of the demand in January, resulting in weak sales in January, and the base figure in January last year was also relatively high. Another reason is that the Spring Festival of the Rabbit is on February 3, and the Spring Festival of the Dragon is on January 23, during the three weeks before and after the Spring Festival, it is often the golden period of fast-moving consumer goods such as clothing and food, while the durability of home appliances and other products Sales of consumer goods are at a low point.

According to Wang Jinliang, assistant president of Midea Refrigeration Appliances Group, from the current point of view, the big environment is still not good, and the entire home appliance market is very light, and there is no significant good foreseeable.

"The drop of 45.7% is a terrible figure, but after analyzing the reasons, we believe that although the decline is more than expected, it is still within control." Han Yu said.

Liang Zhenpeng also believes that white goods such as air conditioners are greatly affected by the real estate market. Various signals indicate that real estate will continue to be regulated in 2012, so the corresponding growth in the white goods market is weak.

However, Han Hao believes that from the beginning of May, air-conditioning sales will be better, and in the second half may be slowly improved. According to his analysis, air conditioners are slightly different from those of refrigerators and washing machines, and air conditioners are still mainly sold in urban markets. However, the market has not yet reached the level of saturation. Such a low level has a lot to do with the transaction volume of the real estate market. The demand for real estate is there, and some data from Ovid Consulting track shows that the turnover of some cities has picked up. In addition, many governments have centralized procurement of home appliances when supporting public rental housing.

Han Hao said that Ovid Consulting had done a model of the air conditioning, and the annual compound annual growth rate of air conditioners was about 15% from 2011 to 2015. It may fluctuate in different years, but the overall trend is that air conditioners are used in several large appliances. It is the best and the future demand space is the largest.

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